Is 2012 the Year of Rebirth for webOS? | Featured, News, Opinion/Editorials |webOSroundup

Just about a month ago now Meg Whitman announced to the world that webOS was going to follow in Android’s footsteps and go open source. Much of the tech world rejoiced…us included, but what does that mean for the short term? What about further out?

Being the EiC of a webOS focused site I get asked a good bit as to what my thoughts are about it and whether or not 2012 is going to be “the year” of webOS [Don't we ask that every year? - Ed].

Will the fact that webOS is now open source change how the world sees our beloved framework? The answer could be yes…but there is a tough climb ahead. At WOR we are known for not pulling punches and we aren’t about to start now. So without further ado…here is what I believe it will take to make webOS a contender in the OS wars.

We need hardware. Period.

Here is the unvarnished truth: an OS that doesn’t have hardware isn’t an OS at all because it isn’t actually operating anything. HP has said very clearly that it is out of the smartphone business for at least the foreseeable future if not forever (probably forever). They have further said that they might make tablets sometime in 2013…that isn’t good enough. Not by a long shot. By 2013 webOS will be a distant memory.

In order to become more than a has been one or more major manufacturers need to embrace webOS this year. Now I am not saying that they need to focus purely on webOS and forsake all others, but a company like HTC, Samsung, or even one of the many Chinese companies that are beginning to flex their muscles will need to release a few models that have webOS as the primary operating system.

Is this likely? Hard to say. On the positive side, we have Googlerola out there. This merger ticked off a lot of the major Android brands because it is hard to see a future where Motorola isn’t going to get favored treatment.

Could this be enough to push them over the edge to try out webOS? In all honesty, the fact that Android is such a powerhouse makes this seem unlikely. Being a second class citizen to the biggest of the big is probably more enticing than being the champion of a brand that most people have never heard of. However, stranger things have happened.

Another possibility is that HP pulls a Microsoft and throws gobs of money at a respected manufacturer in return for them putting webOS on their devices. This strategy is just getting up and running with Nokia so it is hard to say whether this tactic works at all. Regardless, the real question there is whether HP has any interest in such a strategy.

Realistically the best chance of webOS getting its own hardware lies in some of the smaller, or less prominent brands, such as Huawei or even Lenovo (they like Android right now, but they are really just getting started in the smartphone market).

Why do I say that? Let’s jump to part 2.

Software

When webOS came out it truly was way ahead of everyone else. It may not have been the fastest on the block, but functionality like cards, synergy, etc. put it above everyone else. Fast forward to now and the things that made webOS unique are ingrained in every OS out there (except perhaps iOS).

Both the latest versions of WP7 and Android have a respectable implementation of cards. Android 4.0 also has, for all intents and purposes, synergy through their people functions.

So the playing field is basically leveled in terms of functionality, so where does webOS go from here? It has to innovate again. In an open source environment is that possible? That will really depend on HP.

When HP released webOS to the world what did that really mean? Did that mean that they washed their hands of it and were done? Or, perhaps, did it mean that they were going to be like Google and be its champion by improving on it constantly and making sure that the app store was up and running for all those who use it?

We don’t know the answer to that yet, but my big question is, why would HP spend millions or billions of dollars on improving it? Google has a lot of incentives…ads mainly and a lot of app sales. Does HP have some? It very well might. Having a top tier OS that they can leverage in their consumer and enterprise products could give them a competitive advantage when fighting with Dell, Lenovo, etc. Another possibility is that they could use webOS as the glue between their servers, printers, laptops, and other doodads that they produce. Having custom apps could allow these devices to talk to each other in completely new ways. More importantly these “new ways” would belong to HP.

The only hint as to the direction HP is going is the fact that they have kept a reported 600 people who are focused on webOS in some capacity. This includes the SWAT team that exists to build apps for corporations. Both of these are good signs and show that, at least for now, HP is content with being the overseer of development.

Hardware and software truly go together here. No manufacturer is going to put out a device for a dead OS, but if they are convinced that HP, and the avid community, is behind it, then they very well might take a risk and see if they can set themselves apart from the Android army.

Bringing it home

So will webOS take the world by storm in 2012? Not likely. The days where we dreamed that webOS would become number one, second, or even third in the smartphone wars are most likely behind us; however, if some hardware comes out this year and HP really does get behind the software, then it is entirely possible that webOS could have a small, yet profitable, place in the smartphone arena.

Selling 50 million devices a year is not required to be profitable. What needs to happen is that webOS needs to find its niche this year. Will it be the tinker toy for the super geeks like Linux has been for all these years? Will it be home to a new brand of business device championed by HP?

What do you think? In your estimation, where do you think webOS will be a year from now?

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